House prices are rising and falling at once. Which figure should you price your home from?
The official index says up 1.4%. Surveyors say down. The difference is about four months, and it matters if you are selling this autumn.
Are house prices rising or falling right now?
Both, depending on which figure you read. HM Land Registry's UK House Price Index puts the average UK home at £273,000 in July 2026, up 1.4% on a year earlier. The RICS survey for August reports a net balance of -28% of surveyors seeing prices fall. They measure different moments, and a seller should price from the more recent one.
If you are thinking about selling this autumn, that gap matters more than either headline. The number most people quote is the official one, and the official one describes deals that were agreed in the spring.
What does each figure actually measure?
The UK House Price Index is built from completed sales, recorded once the conveyancing is finished and the purchase is registered. HM Land Registry says registration typically follows completion by between two weeks and two months. The government's own estimate, published on 18 June 2026, is that the average home purchase takes around 120 days.
Put those together and a sale recorded in July was most likely agreed in the spring. The July index is a very accurate photograph of a market that has since moved on.
The RICS Residential Market Survey asks chartered surveyors what they are seeing in their branches now: buyer enquiries this month, sales agreed this month, and the direction of prices over the last three months. It is a sentiment survey rather than a record of transactions, so it gives a direction and a rough strength, never a price.
| Measure | What it records | Latest reading | How current |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK House Price Index (HM Land Registry, ONS) | Prices paid on completed, registered sales | £273,000 average, +1.4% on the year, +0.7% on the month (July 2026) | Reflects offers accepted roughly four months earlier |
| RICS house price balance | Share of surveyors reporting rising minus falling prices | -28% (August 2026), up from -29% in July and a low of -35% in April | The last three months |
| RICS agreed sales balance | Change in sales agreed during the month | -17% (August 2026), from -38% in April | This month |
| RICS new buyer enquiries | Change in buyer demand during the month | -19% (August 2026), the least negative since January | This month |
One more caution on the official figure: HM Land Registry's first estimate for any month rests on around 40% of the sales that will eventually be registered, and it is revised as the rest arrive. July's 1.4% is provisional.
Why does this trip sellers up?
Because the first number you hear becomes the number you judge everything else against. Psychologists call this anchoring, and property is one of the places it has been studied most directly. In a 1987 study by Gregory Northcraft and Margaret Neale, estate agents were shown the same house with different listed prices. Their own valuations moved with the listed price, and most of them said the listed price had not influenced them.
For a seller the anchor is usually one of three things: the headline index, the price a neighbour achieved, or the figure from the most optimistic valuation. All three look backwards. A neighbour's completion in July was probably agreed in the spring. An index rising 1.4% says nothing about whether a buyer in your postcode will pay more than last spring.
The cost of anchoring high is not the first price. It is what happens after it. A home that sits unsold collects questions from buyers about what is wrong with it, and a reduction tells every buyer watching that the seller is under pressure. You can cut the price. You can't un-list.
What should you price from instead?
- Date your comparables by the agreement, not the completion. When you look at sold prices on your street, count back roughly four months from the completion date. That tells you what market the buyer was bidding in.
- Weight the most recent sales most heavily. A sale registered last month is worth more than three from last year, even if the older ones are closer matches on size.
- Read the direction, not only the level. The RICS balances have become less negative every month since April. That describes a market that is stabilising at a lower level, not one that is recovering to last year's prices. Surveyors still expect some price weakness over the next three months and a broadly flat year ahead.
- Look at your region separately. The national figures hide wide splits. In the year to July, the official index had the North East up 4.9% and London down 3.3%. Flats fell 2.4% while semi-detached homes rose 2.9%.
- Find out what buyers will pay before you commit to a number. Every source above measures other people's homes. The only evidence about yours is what buyers say when they see it.
How the split looks by property type
| Property type | Annual change to July 2026 |
|---|---|
| Detached | +1.6% |
| Semi-detached | +2.9% |
| Terraced | +2.5% |
| Flat or maisonette | -2.4% |
Source: UK House Price Index, HM Land Registry, July 2026. These are completed sales, so the same four-month lag applies.
Is now a bad time to sell?
Not necessarily. The RICS figures describe a market that is quieter than a year ago but steadier than it was in April. Agreed sales and buyer enquiries are both improving, and new instructions came in at a net balance of zero in August, so the supply of homes for sale is flat rather than flooding. Buyers remain price sensitive, which rewards sellers who price from current evidence and punishes those who price from last spring.
The practical question is less whether to sell than what you learn before you set the price. A market estimate gives you a starting point. Testing the market gives you something no index can: interest in your particular home.
open for offer is the pre-market, the market that exists before a property is ever advertised. You can get a market estimate for your home, then test the market and see the queue of buyer interest build before you decide whether, and at what price, to list. If you are buying, search homes that are open for offer as well as those already for sale.
Sources
- HM Land Registry, UK House Price Index summary: July 2026
- HM Land Registry, About the UK House Price Index
- RICS, UK Residential Market Survey, August 2026
- Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, homebuying reform announcement, 18 June 2026
- Northcraft and Neale, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1987
Common questions
Are UK house prices rising or falling in 2026?
HM Land Registry's UK House Price Index shows the average UK price at £273,000 in July 2026, up 1.4% on a year earlier. The RICS survey for August 2026 shows a net balance of -28% of surveyors reporting falling prices. The official index records completed sales agreed months earlier; the survey reports current conditions.
Why do Land Registry figures lag the market?
The UK House Price Index is based on completed, registered sales. The government estimates the average home purchase takes around 120 days, and HM Land Registry says registration typically follows completion by two weeks to two months. First estimates are also provisional and revised.
How should I use sold prices to price my home?
Count back roughly four months from each completion date to see when the price was agreed, weight the most recent sales most heavily, check your region and property type separately, and find out what buyers will pay for your home before committing to a price.